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View Change: Nomura: Now look for four 25bp hikes in 2022

BOE
  • “The Bank’s forward guidance is far less precise than that of the ECB or the Fed – rather than providing specific clues as to how much and when the Bank may tighten in the coming months, the MPC simply said that the extent and pace of future tightening would depend on the outlook for the economy and inflation.”
  • “The rhetoric was dialled up a notch, with the Bank saying it may have to act “forcefully” should it be required – a thinly veiled indication that 50bp moves cannot be ruled out,”
  • “The Bank has been clear that it thinks high spot inflation will do sufficient damage to real incomes and spending that ultimately inflation will settle well below its target should they pursue the market’s expectation of monetary tightening. That is why in our adjusted view today we are forecasting only four further 25bp hikes this year [less than the market].”
  • No further hikes expected in 2023 with active gilt sales of GBP10bln/quarter from Q1-23.
  • Nomura had previously forecast 25bp hikes in August and November to a terminal rate of 1.75%.
  • “The biggest threat in our view is that inflation pressures could stay elevated for longer than the Bank can keep its cool, leading to a more ‘forceful’ policy tightening”
  • “The forecasts in the August Monetary Policy Report (MPR) will be key in determining the next steps from the Bank”
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