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View Change: Rabobank: “More hikes, more cuts”

BOE
  • “The 50 bps hike hasn’t yet been very effective… . It’s an initial market reaction, and volatility is elevated, but it could be interpreted as a vote of no confidence in the UK economy.”
  • “It remains to be seen whether ‘at least £30 billion’ [pledged by Truss], which amounts to nearly 1.5% of GDP, will be deployed, but we expect a combination of significant tax cuts and energy bill rebates to be put in place this autumn… this will add to inflation.”
  • “We now expect 100 bps extra rate increases this year: 50 in September, 25 in November and 25 in December. There is a high risk this tightening will be reversed from 2023 H2 onwards.”
  • Rabobank pencils in 25bp hikes in August 2023 and September 2023.
  • Rabobank had previously expected no further hikes after August in its base case.
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