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View Change: SEB looks for an extra 25bp hike in June to terminal 3.75%

RIKSBANK
  • SEB notes that after increasing its Swedish core inflation forecast "it seems less likely that the Riksbank will stop raising already after the meeting in April". An extra 50bp of ECB hikes in the forecast "also increases the pressure on the Riksbank to raise more, especially given the continued very weak SEK."
  • SEB previously looked for a final 50bp hike in April to 3.50% and now adds 25bp for June to a terminal 3.75%.
  • "High inflation indicates that there is a risk of another 50-point increase but falling GDP and expectations that inflation will begin to turn downwards towards the summer speak against such a scenario."

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