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View Change: TD Securites: 75bp in Nov; 4.25% by March; 175bp cuts in 2024

BOE
  • "We now expect the BoE to hike 75bps in November, and continue hiking in 50bps increments in December and February. A final 25bps hike in March 2023 would leave the terminal Bank Rate at 4.25% over the remainder of 2023."
  • TD Securities expects 175bp of cuts in 2024 back to 2.50%.
  • "A largely-unexpected reduction in income taxes poses upside risks to the inflation outlook."
  • "The MPC's next decision on 3 November likely comes before the government's full budget, meaning any cuts to government spending in that budget won't be seen by the MPC (that said, this government's agenda is clear, and stimulus will dominate cuts)"

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