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View Change: UBS: Another 50bp in Sep, then 2x25bp to 2.75% by year-end

BOE
  • Given the “hawkish voting outcome and the MPC's focus on wage and price setting dynamics, which are unlikely to show significant signs of easing in the next month, we expect the MPC to deliver another 50bp hike on 15 September followed by two 25bp hikes in November and December. This would bring Bank Rate to 2.75%.”
  • UBS then expects Bank Rate to remain on hold through 2023.
  • UBS had previously expected 25bp hikes in August, September, November and December to 2.25%.
  • “The scale and pace of hikes, however, will also depend on who will succeed Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister and, in particular, their fiscal policy stance.”

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