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VIEW CHANGE: UniCredit: Raise terminal 25bp to 5.50%; end-2024 still 4.75%

  • “We still expect the MPC to hike by 25bp in August and September. This would take the bank rate to a peak of 5.50%, 25bp higher than previously anticipated following [the] larger-than-expected hike.”
  • “By the time of the November MPC meeting, the economy is likely to have entered a recession with headline inflation declining rapidly and core inflation clearly moving down.”
  • “We see rate cuts starting in 3Q24, taking the bank rate to 4.75% by end-2024 (unchanged).”

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