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THAILAND: VIEW: Goldman Sachs Looks For February Rate Cut

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The BoT unanimously voted to keep rates at 2.25% after cutting 25bp in October with a vote of 5-2. The central bank was widely expected to be on hold in December. Goldman Sachs is forecasting another 25bp cut in Q1 2025 with rates then at 2.0%. February 26 is the only Q1 meeting. USDTHB is up 1% to 34.59 today as greenback strength following a more hawkish Fed weighs.

  • “The central bank reiterated that monetary policy will continue to aim at price stability, support sustainable growth and preserve financial stability. However, the MPC will continue to monitor future financial and economic development in determining its monetary policy given the potentially higher future uncertainties -- in other words, be data dependent -- and "ready to adjust rates if needed", according to the press conference.”
  • “The BOT continues to forecast real GDP growth of 2.7%/2.9% in 2024/25 (GSe: 2.7%/2.6% in 2024/25). Risk to growth in 2025 is to the downside, according to the central bank in the press conference.”
  • “The BOT revised its headline CPI inflation forecast down slightly to 0.4%/1.1% in 2024/25 from 0.5%/1.2%, previously (GSe: 0.5%/1.2% in 2024/25).”
  • “On loans, the central bank noted that loan growth has slowed and that the central bank will continue to monitor the credit growth trend, including the impact from the government's new "Khun Soo, Rao Chuay" program -- which includes a three-year interest payment moratorium and debt restructuring options for selected households.”
  • “The central bank reiterated at the press conference that it remains worried about household debt.”
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The BoT unanimously voted to keep rates at 2.25% after cutting 25bp in October with a vote of 5-2. The central bank was widely expected to be on hold in December. Goldman Sachs is forecasting another 25bp cut in Q1 2025 with rates then at 2.0%. February 26 is the only Q1 meeting. USDTHB is up 1% to 34.59 today as greenback strength following a more hawkish Fed weighs.

  • “The central bank reiterated that monetary policy will continue to aim at price stability, support sustainable growth and preserve financial stability. However, the MPC will continue to monitor future financial and economic development in determining its monetary policy given the potentially higher future uncertainties -- in other words, be data dependent -- and "ready to adjust rates if needed", according to the press conference.”
  • “The BOT continues to forecast real GDP growth of 2.7%/2.9% in 2024/25 (GSe: 2.7%/2.6% in 2024/25). Risk to growth in 2025 is to the downside, according to the central bank in the press conference.”
  • “The BOT revised its headline CPI inflation forecast down slightly to 0.4%/1.1% in 2024/25 from 0.5%/1.2%, previously (GSe: 0.5%/1.2% in 2024/25).”
  • “On loans, the central bank noted that loan growth has slowed and that the central bank will continue to monitor the credit growth trend, including the impact from the government's new "Khun Soo, Rao Chuay" program -- which includes a three-year interest payment moratorium and debt restructuring options for selected households.”
  • “The central bank reiterated at the press conference that it remains worried about household debt.”