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EURO-DOLLAR: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that "relative to a few months ago, the
outlook for the Euro area is more positive. The policy response has been swifter
and more robust than feared, the virus outbreak looks to have been successfully
curtailed, and economic activity is rebounding faster than expected. The
currency has already rallied to reflect these developments, and now sits close
to our 3m forecast of $1.12. At the same time, the potential for new positive
catalysts over the very short term seems more limited. Discussions on the
Recovery Fund have settled on a slower track, as expected, and the final package
is likely to be whittled down as the negotiations continue through the summer.
Next week's PMIs should confirm that activity is improving, but recent
developments on virus containment abroad serve as a reminder that uncertainty is
still high. We believe the Euro will appreciate in the months ahead, but that
will require stronger activity and lower tail risks to allow for gradual