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NOK: VIEW: Goldman Sachs note that they "have maintained for some time that it
was too early to look for outright & sustained USD downside given the balance of
cyclical risks. But in light of the steady reopening process, ltd evidence of a
pickup in COVID infection rates, and encouraging policy actions like progress on
the EU Recovery Fund, we now think USD shorts look attractive in some crosses.
Norway appears well-positioned to outperform through the coronavirus shock. Its
demographics & domestic medical infrastructure make it better equipped for the
outbreak than many other countries, and its strong fiscal position puts it at a
distinct advantage. While others are forced to either limit their fiscal policy
support or dramatically increase borrowing - both potential currency -ves -
Norway is able to repatriate funds from investments abroad (has announced that
it will increase daily transactions even further, from NOK2.1bn to NOK2.3bn),
helping support the econ & NOK. Two months ago, we recommended going long
NOK/SEK for these reasons, today we think investors should rotate that position
(with a gain of about 1%) into a USD-directional expression. We recommend going
short USD/NOK targeting 8.75, stop at 10.25."