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Heading North


Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last


Under Pressure


Trend Condition Remains Bearish

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Kiwibank note that "the shock surge in inflation has led us to revise our OCR outlook. We still expect the cash rate to reach 1.5% by the middle of next year. The next move being a 25bp rate hike at November's MPS. But more looks to be needed to ensure inflation is brought under control. A further two rate hikes are now likely, taking the cash rate to 2.0% by November next year. We had previously forecast the cash rate to hold at 1.5%."

  • "We expect to see the RBNZ's inflation track shunted higher. And the RBNZ's OCR track will be mechanically lifted in response. We expect to see the OCR track pulled forward, and higher, with a 2.2-2.3% end point in 2023/24. Such a change in forecast will add some upside pressure to Kiwi rates and the currency."