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RBNZ: VIEW: Kiwibank writes "the focus this week is all business, and confidence
is crumbling. Businesses have highlighted weak demand, capacity constraints,
(Govt) policy uncertainty, and poor pricing power as reasons to worry about
profitability, reduce investment intentions, and lower inflation expectations.
All of the above point to growth running at or around 1%, half the current run
rate, and a third of what we need. The deterioration in business intentions
demands a policy response. We will get a monetary policy response, but what we
really need is a fiscal policy response. The Government continues to lie in wait
through fear of breaking fiscal responsibility rules, that have proven
irresponsible. So, we must expect the RBNZ to do more, with diminishing returns.
We now expect the RBNZ to cut to just 0.5%, and we see a good chance the bank
delivers in just one move in November. The risk of another move, as bank capital
requirements bite, to 0.25% is uncomfortably high, and will hurt savers."