MNI BRIEF: BOS's Escriva Calls For Gradual Moves To Neutral H1

MNI: UK JAN CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -34

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, January 23

MNI BRIEF: China To Remain Second Largest Import Market

MNI BRIEF: CSRC To Promote Investment Value Of A-shares

MNI BRIEF: US Firms In China Less Optimistic For 2025

MNI: FRANCE JAN MANUF SENTIMENT AT 95

JAPAN DATA: Japan Dec Exports +2.8% Y/Y; Imports +1.8% Y/Y

MNI: JAPAN DEC EXPORTS +2.8% Y/Y; NOV +3.8%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

RIKSBANK: VIEW: Morgan Stanley Pull Cuts Forward To January and May

RIKSBANK
Central Bank NewsSwedenCEEMEA RiksbankBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Morgan Stanley now expect 25bp Riksbank rate cuts in January and May, having previously forecasted H1 '25 easing to come in March and June. They continue to expect 25bp cuts in September '25 and March '26, bringing the policy rate to a terminal of 1.50%. 

  • “We think the Riksbank will deliver the envisaged cut earlier in 1Q25 to support domestic demand recovery. The data flow has been scarce since December, not enough to communicate a change in the assessment of the terminal rate”.
  • “The 2Q25 cut should then come in May, after weaker 1Q25 GDP flash and the conclusion of the base 2025 wage settlement”.
  • “After cutting down to 2.0%, we think the Riksbank will pause for longer periods and adopt a "wait and see" approach to see what effects the delivered rate cuts had on the economy”.  
  • “While markets lean toward a cut next week, at the time of this writing they have yet to fully price it in. Consequently, we think next week's meeting poses downside risks for SEK”. 
169 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Morgan Stanley now expect 25bp Riksbank rate cuts in January and May, having previously forecasted H1 '25 easing to come in March and June. They continue to expect 25bp cuts in September '25 and March '26, bringing the policy rate to a terminal of 1.50%. 

  • “We think the Riksbank will deliver the envisaged cut earlier in 1Q25 to support domestic demand recovery. The data flow has been scarce since December, not enough to communicate a change in the assessment of the terminal rate”.
  • “The 2Q25 cut should then come in May, after weaker 1Q25 GDP flash and the conclusion of the base 2025 wage settlement”.
  • “After cutting down to 2.0%, we think the Riksbank will pause for longer periods and adopt a "wait and see" approach to see what effects the delivered rate cuts had on the economy”.  
  • “While markets lean toward a cut next week, at the time of this writing they have yet to fully price it in. Consequently, we think next week's meeting poses downside risks for SEK”.