VIEW: Morgan Stanley write "the RBA has tied....>

RBA: VIEW: Morgan Stanley write "the RBA has tied any rate cut to developments

in the labour market. The increase in unemployment (and particularly

underemployment) implies a headwind to wages growth and inflation, and the

market has reacted by increasing the probability of a June rate cut (~50%). We

think the bar for a rate move outside of an SMP cycle (Feb/May/Aug/Nov) is high,

and in our view there is enough that the RBA can point to in this release (still

solid jobs growth, record levels of participation and employment-to-population)

that they will stay on hold in June. Another weak labour print next month may

see a July cut on the table, but at this stage we continue to view August as the

most likely timing for an initial rate cut."