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VIEW: NAB: Q4 Inflation Keeps The Pressure On The RBA

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NAB note that “while the headline inflation result is better than the RBA feared in its November SoMP forecast for an 8.0% peak, it is far from benign. It was primarily volatile items driving that favourable outcome relative to the RBA’s early expectations. As such we don’t think today’s headline result will be much comfort for the RBA, not least due to the upside surprise on trimmed mean inflation.”

  • “Nevertheless, upside risk to the headline inflation outlook have receded with growing confidence that construction inflation is in retreat and signs of goods disinflation globally. The labour market remains tight, but timely indicators of labour demand are off their peaks as labour supply has normalised and frictions associated with rapid employment growth out of pandemic impacts moderate.”
  • “NAB continues to see growth slowing over 2023. In that context, we think the RBA is nearing the end of their tightening cycle and see the RBA raising rates by 25bp on 7 February, when we think the Board will discuss 25bp or 0bp, and pencil in a final hike in March to a peak cash rate of 3.60%.”
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NAB note that “while the headline inflation result is better than the RBA feared in its November SoMP forecast for an 8.0% peak, it is far from benign. It was primarily volatile items driving that favourable outcome relative to the RBA’s early expectations. As such we don’t think today’s headline result will be much comfort for the RBA, not least due to the upside surprise on trimmed mean inflation.”

  • “Nevertheless, upside risk to the headline inflation outlook have receded with growing confidence that construction inflation is in retreat and signs of goods disinflation globally. The labour market remains tight, but timely indicators of labour demand are off their peaks as labour supply has normalised and frictions associated with rapid employment growth out of pandemic impacts moderate.”
  • “NAB continues to see growth slowing over 2023. In that context, we think the RBA is nearing the end of their tightening cycle and see the RBA raising rates by 25bp on 7 February, when we think the Board will discuss 25bp or 0bp, and pencil in a final hike in March to a peak cash rate of 3.60%.”