VIEW: Natwest Markets note that their "base.....>

FED: VIEW: Natwest Markets note that their "base case assumes Covid-19 outbreaks

become more widespread across the U.S. In that event, fear over contracting the

virus & actions to contain spread may lead to a sharp pullback in consumer

spending - the previous bright spot for the econ. Meanwhile, biz investment will

only be undermined further by growing uncertainty over the global econ outlook.

As a result, we have marked down our econ forecasts sharply. A recession can't

be ruled out. Against this backdrop, we look for the Fed to cut rates by at

least 50bps between now & the conclusion of the Mar meeting (coordinated global

action prior to the meeting cannot be ruled out). Should the Fed move

intermeeting, we would not rule out additional action on Mar 18th (On Oct 8,

'08, the Fed lowered rates by 50bp, taking coordinated action alongside its

global counterparts, then followed that up with another 50 bps cut at next

meeting on Oct 29). Beyond Mar, with the news flow expected to remain -ve & the

econ costs of the outbreak increasingly evident, we believe the Fed will feel

the need to provide additional support, cutting rates in Apr & Jun, returning

rates to the ZLB by mid-year. Renewed BS expansion also likely."