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Still Looking For Gains


Remains Vulnerable


Recent Highs Remain Intact


Holding Onto Gains


Bearish Risk


Attention Is On The 50-day EMA

VIEW: Nomura On Today's RBA Decision

  • We expect no material change to the tone or policy guidance from the RBA at its regular monthly policy meeting. We expect it to repeat that the worst of the global contraction has likely passed and that market conditions remain supportive but that the outlook remains highly uncertain. AUD was not mentioned in the prior meeting press release, and we are curious about whether the further modest rise in AUD has attracted the attention of the RBA, although we would not expect any material expression of concern. We believe that the RBA's views on the local growth and inflation outlook will be largely unchanged and expect to see a repeat of its message that ongoing fiscal support is still required; indeed, we are keen to see if this (latter) language is "dialed up" at this meeting. We expect the current 0.25% target for the cash rate and YCC program to remain unchanged for an extended period, but continue to think that, if the policy stance is to be altered from this point, it would still be in the direction of more accommodation, not less. We do not think the Fed Chair's Jackson Hole communication will greatly impact RBA thinking at this meeting, but see it as supporting our belief that the policymakers continue to favour more easing, rather than less.
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