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FED: VIEW: Nordea expect "the Fed to cut its policy rates in June (previously
March), as we believe the labour market will weaken in tandem with the economic
slowdown and as financial conditions might otherwise tighten when liquidity
measures are tapered."
- Risks: "The review of the monetary policy strategy will be concluded during
the summer, and clear, simple communication will be part of the review. In that
sense, the bar to mixing near-term policy considerations into the medium-term
framework communication might be slightly higher for the FOMC meetings on 9-10
June and 28-29 July. The labour market might continue to surprise positively!
The historical relationship between GDP growth and nonfarm payrolls pointed to
significantly weaker payrolls increases in the second half of 2019 than what was
realised. If job growth continues to surprise positively in the first half of
this year, consumer spending will hold up and the spill-over from last year's
trade war-related manufacturing weakness to the service sector will be modest
and the Fed will likely continue to see the current level of policy rates as
appropriate for a while longer."