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Trend Needle Still Points North

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Shows Below 50-Day EMA

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RBC note that "today's RBA action was welcomed and builds on the change to the charge to borrow Apr-23s and Apr-24s (100bp from 25bp) announced on Monday. The yield on the Apr-24s fell from ~17bp pre-announcement to ~12bp currently. However, we expect the market to continue to test the RBA's resolve to hold rates unchanged until 2024 reflecting 3 factors that are unlikely to dissipate any time soon. Indeed, some may well intensify. These are 1) a more hawkish global central banking stance 2) increasing inflation concerns and 3) a faster reopening of NSW/VIC. Further RBA YCC operations will need to be backed up by some strong communication and jawboning from the RBA at the 2 Nov board meeting, 5 Nov SoMP and the Governor's 16 Nov ABE annual address for a still sceptical market."