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VIEW: Retail Sales Data Point To Consumer Slowdown, RBA Still To Hike

AUSTRALIA
  • ANZ has noted that the sharp fall in December retail sales was concentrated in the discretionary categories, such as clothing and department stores. Black Friday sales in November and increased travel spending account for some of the weakness but not all. ANZ expects consumption to slow over 2023 due to higher rates and negative real wages.
  • According to CBA, the weak retail sales data reflects the impact of rising rates and inflation on households and that these pressures will continue this year. They expect the refi of mortgages to add to cash flow pressures in 2023.
  • Betashares says that retail sales won’t stop the RBA from hiking 25bp on February 7 given further Q4 price pressures and the tight labour market. They also note that the RBA would welcome some cooling in spending.
    - The Australian
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