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VIEW: TD Eyeing One Final Hike In Jan After Employment Report

CANADA
  • From Friday… The Canadian labour market ended 2022 on an exceptionally strong note with employment surging by 104k (cons +5.0k) as the unemployment rate fell back to 5.0%.
  • Both goods and services saw solid gains, while full-time and private sector employees accounted for most of the new jobs.
  • The report leaves the BoC in an uncomfortable position, with a six-month jobs trend near 30k and a slight deceleration in wages unlikely to satisfy the BoC.
  • TD now look for the Bank to hike another 25bps to 4.50% in Jan, marking the terminal for the cycle with no rate cuts until 1Q24.
  • On FX, they expect 1.35 to act as an anchor for USDCAD, but think it is nearing a make or break moment come the BOC meeting. Another 25bp hike is trivial from a market pricing perspective and CAD is likely to remain a laggard in 1H23 given pressures from household imbalances.
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