VIEW: TD Securities Tweak RBA Hike Call, QE Uncertainty Aplenty

TD Securities note that "the risks that underlying inflation could be stronger and the labour market firmer than we thought means the risks are skewed towards the RBA hiking earlier. A hike in May '22 is the earliest the Bank could move and would require trimmed mean prints of 2.5%+ in Jan '22 and Apr '22. A hike in Aug '22 is possible following Q222 CPI in July, but a hike in Q422 is lining up as most likely with additional wages and GDP data at hand. We now change our call for the RBA to commence its hike cycle in Q422."

• "Our official forecast is for the RBA to shift the target bond from the Apr 24s to the Apr 23s at next week's meeting but we do admit it's more likely next year. What's more likely is the RBA announcing an end to QE in Feb at next week's meeting."