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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessVIEW: Wednesday saw Barclays note....>
BRAZILIAN REAL: VIEW: Wednesday saw Barclays note that "the BRL REER has
depreciated about 26% YtD, the most among major EM FX. The combination, and
mutual reinforcement, of the different simultaneous crises (economic, public
health, political) has brought downside to Brazilian assets. The outlook for the
currency has deteriorated since we put in place our most recent forecast in late
March and we revise the path for USD/BRL higher across the forecast horizon:
- End Q220: BRL5.90 (prev. BRL 5.25) - End Q320: BRL6.05 (prev. BRL 5.30)
- End Q420: BRL6.10 (prev. BRL 5.25) - End Q121: BRL6.15 (prev. BRL 5.20)
- The policy combo is not supportive for the BRL. Prev. episodes of significant
REER depreciation were met with Selic rate hikes as the budget balance
deteriorated. Then monetary easing followed once the budget balance stabilized
or it was clear that it would. In the current episode, the central bank has cut
rates as the BRL depreciated, and the deterioration of the fiscal balance will
begin as fiscal support ramps up. The central bank will likely continue with its
discretionary interventions, which should smooth the USD/BRL path but not change
its trajectory, given the policy mix & fundamental deterioration."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.