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BOE: / VIEWS: (1/2) Majority of banks expect BoE to vote 7-2 to leave rates
unchanged but with with some expecting a hawkish slant to MPC minutes. See views
- Goldman: Expect 7-2 vote to keep rate unchanged. In minutes expect committee
to recognise additional inflationary effect of Sterling's further 2% weakening
in the past month. Continue to expect a rate increase in 2018Q4.
- Commerzbank: With no significant changes to the economic picture compared to
last month, unlikely there will be any changes in policy. However, at least one
member is expected to maintain their call for higher interest rates.
- RBC: Look for 7-2 vote with McCafferty and Saunders the hawkish dissenters.
Further exchange rate weakness, means it seems likely the minutes will have a
hawkish tinge to them. Risk now of 6-3 split due to higher CPI.
- Barclays: Despite data and surveys printing on average on the soft side, we
believe MPC will want to react to recent depreciation in the currency and step
up hawkish rhetoric. In the unlikely event that another member votes for a hike,
this would likely occur in November on the back of updated forecasts.