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POLAND: Views Among MPC Board Over Timing of First Cut Diverge

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

Five out of the nine non-Governor members of the MPC have spoken since Glapinski’s press conference yesterday, with some of the members pushing back against the Governor’s updated guidance that rate cut discussions will now begin in 4Q 2025 rather than in March. Brief highlights from each of the member’s comments provided below, ordered roughly from what we perceive to be the most dovish to the most hawkish:

  • Kochalski: “I have already suggested that 2025, or more precisely the March 2025 projection, may be the moment to discuss monetary policy easing. And I stand by my position.”
  • Wnorowski: “[Plan to remove the energy price cap at the end of next year] doesn’t erase the possibility of talks of possible reductions once we get acquainted with the March inflation projection.”
  • Kotecki: “The position of the central bank’s governor is not the position of the Monetary Policy Council” […] “It seems to me that the governor is unfortunately returning to politics again, which is regrettable.”
  • Dabrowski: “I agree with the opinions that the first or second quarter may be too early to discuss rate cuts. The decision itself also needs to be delayed a bit, but not necessarily until 2026”
  • Maslowska: Says rate cuts may start in 2H 2025 or 1Q 2026; “I’m always in favor of a more cautious, wait-and-see approach”
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Five out of the nine non-Governor members of the MPC have spoken since Glapinski’s press conference yesterday, with some of the members pushing back against the Governor’s updated guidance that rate cut discussions will now begin in 4Q 2025 rather than in March. Brief highlights from each of the member’s comments provided below, ordered roughly from what we perceive to be the most dovish to the most hawkish:

  • Kochalski: “I have already suggested that 2025, or more precisely the March 2025 projection, may be the moment to discuss monetary policy easing. And I stand by my position.”
  • Wnorowski: “[Plan to remove the energy price cap at the end of next year] doesn’t erase the possibility of talks of possible reductions once we get acquainted with the March inflation projection.”
  • Kotecki: “The position of the central bank’s governor is not the position of the Monetary Policy Council” […] “It seems to me that the governor is unfortunately returning to politics again, which is regrettable.”
  • Dabrowski: “I agree with the opinions that the first or second quarter may be too early to discuss rate cuts. The decision itself also needs to be delayed a bit, but not necessarily until 2026”
  • Maslowska: Says rate cuts may start in 2H 2025 or 1Q 2026; “I’m always in favor of a more cautious, wait-and-see approach”