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VIEWS: Bank desk views on yesterday's RBNZ.....>

RBNZ: VIEWS: Bank desk views on yesterday's RBNZ MonPol decision:
- ANZ: The near-term growth outlook has deteriorated, our own views on the
outlook for MonPol have become a bit more circumspect. The RBNZ has signalled
that the OCR will remain unch. until into '20, which is later than our current
pick of a move in Nov '19. Given the world is always changing, there is little
practical difference between projecting late-'19, late-'20, or a completely flat
track; they are all effectively "wait and see" placeholders.
- ASB: The tilt to a more dovish view was bigger than exp. But we do see
inflation pressures building more quickly than in the RBNZ's view, particularly
via wages. We still see late '19 as the likely timing for OCR hikes.
- BNZ: Concerns over growth dominate rising inflation. We still think
inflation's coming, but, but we push our first rate hike out to Aug '19.
- Westpac: The RBNZ has now accepted that growth is falling short of its
forecasts. The intensity of the RBNZ's reaction to the slowdown in growth
surprised us & mkts. We now see a risk that the OCR starts rising even later
than our long-held forecast of late '19.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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