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Virag Says Next Week’s Rate Decision “Fully Open”

HUNGARY
  • "The January inflation data can provide an argument for the temporary acceleration of interest rate cuts, but at the same time, the postponement of interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB speaks in favor of maintaining the rate of 75 basis points," NBH Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag said in an interview to index.hu, adding that this month, “both options received new arguments. The outcome of the interest decision is fully open.”
  • Virag said that a 100bp cut was on the table in January, but negative market and credit agency reception to the proposed changes to the reference rate, as well as the FT report which alleged that EU members would shut off funding to Hungary if it did not withdraw its veto on sending aid to Ukraine all contributed to the negative sentiment in Hungary.
    • The full interview can be found here.
  • Meanwhile, average gross wage data for Hungary in December came in above expectations, rising 16.0% y/y compared to +13.9% y/y the month prior (Est: +13.8%). That is the highest year-on-year increase since June 2023. Unemployment rate data is on the docket tomorrow (Est: 4.3%; Prior: 4.2%).
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