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Visco Expects Inflation To Decline Faster Than ECB Forecast

ECB

ECB governing council member and Bank of Italy Governor Visco has given an interview to Bloomberg TV and said that he believes inflation will return to 2% faster than the ECB’s forecast of end-2025. He expects lower energy prices to result in a significant moderation in core inflation. A recession shouldn’t be necessary to contain inflation (our recession probability model indicates only a small chance of a recession). Visco believes that the ECB needs to find a balance so that it doesn’t do too much or too little. He is also happy with the pace of ECB bond portfolio reduction. The next ECB meeting is on July 27 and the market has a 25bp hike almost fully priced in.

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