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Volatile Euro Ends At Week’s Lows Following ECB

FOREX
  • EURUSD initially traded well on the back of the ECB rate decision, showing above the bear channel top and printing 1.0774 - albeit briefly. The pair was unable to maintain its bid and sharply reversed course into the European close, taking out the week's lows in the process. Having failed above the bear channel top, key short-term support at 1.0627, the Jun 01 low, was then breached with the next notable support residing at 1.0533, the May 20 low.
  • Broad dollar indices are extending gains late Thursday, having risen over 0.6% to the best levels of the week. Downward pressure on equities and higher US yields supporting the price action and weighing on the likes of AUD, CAD and NZD.
  • AUDUSD the notable underperformer across G10, retreating 1.29%. The pair has traded back below the 20-day EMA, at 0.7153 today and a sustained break of this average would threaten the recent recovery. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low.
  • In emerging markets, it is worth noting a particularly volatile session for the Turkish Lira. After an aggressive, albeit brief, spike to fresh recent highs of 17.3717, price had consolidated somewhat before the finance ministry stated that Turkey would announce new economy steps later today. As of writing, no announcement has been made, however, TRY has been significantly bolstered by the news.
    • A sharp reversal lower for USDTRY saw the pair briefly print below 16.80 and remains just above 16.90, down 1.25% for the session. Firm support lies at 16.1964, the 20-day EMA.
  • US CPI headlines the data docket on Friday. Core CPI inflation is expected to dip slightly from +0.57% M/M in April to +0.5% M/M, with a faster rise in headline CPI at +0.7% M/M amid energy price rises. Canadian employment data also round off the week’s calendar.
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