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Volatile start to the last day of the month

BOND SUMMARY

It has been a fairly volatile European morning session (in contrast to the lack of movement seen in Treauries in the Asian session).

  • There don't appear to be clear drivers explaining the moves, with some pointing to month end flows, but we have seen Bunds selloff at the open, spike higher, before selling off further and have now started to move higher again, leaving Bund futures not far from their where they closed Friday.
  • Gilts have drifted higher with the curve flattening while Treasuries have drifted a little lower.
  • There is not much on the calendar of note today other than European inflation data, but looking ahead we will receive ISM data, payrolls on Friday and negotiations will continue for the EU Budget and Brexit. Next week will see both the Fed and the ECB meet, so any comments from policymakers will be closely watched.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 138-04+ with 10y UST yields up 0.2bp at 0.841% and 2y yields up 0.1bp at 0.154%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.05 today at 175.55 with 10y Bund yields down -0.1bp at -0.590% and Schatz yields up 0.2bp at -0.760%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.28 today at 134.62 with 10y yields down -1.3bp at 0.270% and 2y yields down -0.4bp at -0.56%.

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