Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
US voters are evenly split of which party they will support at the 2024 general election, according to the 538 polling tracker, as lawmakers depart Washington for a two-week recess.
- According to the tracker - which aggregates polling asking a binary choice between an unnamed Republican and Democrat Congressional candidate -, an even split of 44.5% of voters would back Democrats and Republicans respectively.
- The tracker shows that the Democrats have strengthened since early in the year when the GOP held a 1.5% advantage.
- Although it is too early to consider generic ballot polling predictive of the general election result, it is a useful sentiment check on Congressional approval.
- In light of hardline conservative Rep Majorie Taylor-Greene’s (R-GA) decision on Friday to initiate a process which could lead to a vote to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), the generic ballot may a useful gauge on how voters will react to the possibility of another period of major instability in the House. The prevailing view is that dysfunction in the House would harm the GOP.
Figure 1: Generic Congressional Ballot, Over Time
Source: 538
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok