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Voters Swing Slightly Towards Biden After Trump Guilty Verdict, NYT

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A new survey from the New York Times has found a statistically significant polling swing towards President Biden following former Trump’s guilty verdict in Manhattan.

  • NYT: “In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records. The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.”
  • Elections Analyst Nate Cohen writes that, “losing 7 percent of your supporters can be decisive. In recent polls, Mr. Biden either leads or is within two points of Mr. Trump in states and districts worth the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. A potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trump’s former supporters — 3 percent — now told us they’ll back Mr. Biden, while another 4 percent say they’re now undecided.”

Figure 1: Recontacted Voter Voting Intentions Before and After Trump Guilty Verdict

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A new survey from the New York Times has found a statistically significant polling swing towards President Biden following former Trump’s guilty verdict in Manhattan.

  • NYT: “In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records. The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.”
  • Elections Analyst Nate Cohen writes that, “losing 7 percent of your supporters can be decisive. In recent polls, Mr. Biden either leads or is within two points of Mr. Trump in states and districts worth the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. A potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trump’s former supporters — 3 percent — now told us they’ll back Mr. Biden, while another 4 percent say they’re now undecided.”

Figure 1: Recontacted Voter Voting Intentions Before and After Trump Guilty Verdict

Keep reading...Show less