Voters Want The Election Winner To Form Next Government

Academics surveyed by the Bangkok Post believe that Pheu Thai will win the most seats followed by Move Forward. They are not sure what coalition will evolve from the results and the negotiations that follow but a survey showed that most voters want the government to be formed by the party that wins the most seats (see link). In the scenario that Pheu Thai wins the election but a pro-military minority government is formed, then the risk of civil unrest becomes high.

• The academics believe that Pheu Thai will win 200-220 seats, followed by Move Forward on a more varied 60-150, UTN of PM Prayut 25-30, the military-aligned PPRP 20-50, Bhumjaithai 30-70, Democrats 25-50 and smaller parties 25-50.
• Unless the coalition has the backing of the military-dominated senate, then it is going to need 375 seats in the House of Representatives to have its candidate for PM approved by parliament. The academics tend to think that a coalition of Pheu Thai, Move Forward and other opposition parties should be able to at least get close to 375. If they cannot negotiate an agreement, then there is the risk that the pro-military PPRP forms a minority government with other sympathetic parties with either current PM Prayut or Deputy PM Gen Prawit at the helm.
• The 5-year term of the senate ends next year. Thus, if a PM is chosen by a minority government, the parliament may be able to select another PM once the senate seats are reassigned.
• It is worth noting that previous polls have not been good predictors of election results.