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Vujcic Prefers 25bps Cuts, But Later, Larger is a "Possibility"

ECB

Vujcic speaking live on BBG TV

  • We need patience, we need more data to confirm we will hit medium-term target
  • Important data on wages still to come, but supply shocks have largely dissipated
  • Labour market still strong, domestic inflation still elevated
  • We do have disinflation process nicely developing
  • Risk of technical recession, but not "real" deep recession

On market pricing for ECB:

  • The fact that markets are running ahead of in terms of pricing means financial conditions are easing
  • Doesn't take a strong view on market pricing, "sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong"
  • On question of magnitude of first cut: Later, larger cut is a "possibility" if warranted by the data, but would ideally like to see 25bps cuts initially, makes for smoother running of monpol.

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