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Wage Data Counters Wider Bond Cheapening In Early SONIA Trade

STIR

Domestic labour market data (particularly the wage dynamics, detailed elsewhere) helps take some of the edge off the weakness seen in wider core global FI markets seen since yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

  • That leaves SONIA futures flat to +2.5 through the blues.
  • BoE-dated OIS runs 1bp softer to 1bp firmer through ’24 MPC contracts, ~132.5bp of cuts are priced through '24 at present.
  • Outside of the data, local news flow has seen some focus on the drivers of PM Sunak’s poor showing in the opinion polls, but there was nothing particularly shocking/new there. Labour maintains a comfortable lead in the polls ahead of the next general election.
  • BoE Governor Bailey will appear in front of the Lords Economic Affairs Committee later today (15:00 London).
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.196+0.7
Mar-245.128-6.1
May-244.955-23.3
Jun-244.726-46.3
Aug-244.461-72.7
Sep-244.244-94.4
Nov-244.024-116.4
Dec-243.863-132.5
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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