April 16, 2024 06:47 GMT
Wage Data Weighs On SONIA Futures, Less Than 50bp Of '24 Cuts Priced
STIR
Firmer-than-expected UK wage data weighs on SONIA futures, last flat to -4.5 through the blues.
- As suggested ahead of the release, the wage data has dominated the softer-than-expected employment figures, at least when it comes to markets.
- Core global bond markets also move lower on the data, with Bund futures back to levels seen around yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows ~47bp of ’24 cuts vs. a little over 50bp at yesterday’s close, with the first 25p cut still fully discounted come the end of the Sep ’24 MPC.
- Today’s data further pushes back against the idea of imminent BoE cuts, although the June and particularly August MPC meetings remain very much in play re: a first cut.
- On that note, incoming BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli is set to appear in front of the TSC later today, while BoE Governor Bailey will speak at 18:00 London.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.183 | -1.5 |
Jun-24 | 5.118 | -8.0 |
Aug-24 | 5.007 | -19.1 |
Sep-24 | 4.933 | -26.5 |
Nov-24 | 4.816 | -38.2 |
Dec-24 | 4.731 | -46.7 |
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