MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Wage Growth Expected to Accelerate to 8.8% in August

POLAND
  • Yesterday, NBP member Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that a rate hike in coming months cannot be ruled out and that the central bank decision will depend on the November projection. The first hike is likely to be 'small' and the NBP would not have to stop QE first to embark in a tightening cycle.
  • Economic data also showed yesterday that core inflation came in as expected at 3.9% YoY in August, up from 3.7% the previous month.
  • At this stage, three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) have been voting for a rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
  • The other major risks for the PLN are the legal conflicts with EU, which could delay the EU aid plans (Poland is expecting 23.9bn EUR in grants and 12.1bn EUR in loans) and the FX loans settlements.
  • This morning, wage growth in the corporate sector is expected to accelerate by 8.8% in August (up from 8.7% the previous month) and unemployment rate is expected to decelerated to 1.1% (down from 1.8% the previous month).
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