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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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  • Yesterday, NBP member Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that a rate hike in coming months cannot be ruled out and that the central bank decision will depend on the November projection. The first hike is likely to be 'small' and the NBP would not have to stop QE first to embark in a tightening cycle.
  • Economic data also showed yesterday that core inflation came in as expected at 3.9% YoY in August, up from 3.7% the previous month.
  • At this stage, three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) have been voting for a rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
  • The other major risks for the PLN are the legal conflicts with EU, which could delay the EU aid plans (Poland is expecting 23.9bn EUR in grants and 12.1bn EUR in loans) and the FX loans settlements.
  • This morning, wage growth in the corporate sector is expected to accelerate by 8.8% in August (up from 8.7% the previous month) and unemployment rate is expected to decelerated to 1.1% (down from 1.8% the previous month).