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Waiting-And-Seeing On Stimulus, Fed

US TSYS SUMMARY

A solid if unexciting session for Treasuries, with most gains made overnight on no-deal Brexit concerns.

  • We had modest follow through in U.S. hours as markets considered potential for a government shutdown at midnight, and a continued COVID fiscal impasse.
  • Slightly sub-par volume too, with a real wait-and-see feel on political developments and next week's FOMC.
  • Curve mixed, with the belly outperforming. The 2-Yr yield is down 2bps at 0.117%, 5-Yr is down 3.5bps at 0.3512%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 0.8816%, and 30-Yr is down 1.2bps at 1.6151%.
  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 8.5/32 at 138-05 (L: 137-26.5 / H: 138-07)
  • Attention has also been on equities which continue to stumble after recent all-time highs; in contrast data (mildly weaker-than-expected PPI, strong beat in UMichigan sentiment) didn't really move the needle significantly.
  • That said, plenty of data next week, which will provide greater insight into the economic impact of the 2nd wave of the pandemic: retail sales, flash PMI, housing starts, and industrial production all on the docket.

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