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Waiting for ADP, Tsy Refunding Annc

US TSY FUTURES
Tsy futures are bouncing around lows on moderate volumes (China and Japan markets still closed for holiday, resume Thu). Markets awaiting ADP private employ data at 0815ET (mean est +850k) for clues ahead Fri's headline Apr NFP data (+950k) -- both estimates have been inching off higher levels since Monday. Tsy quarterly refunding estimate at 0830ET: An estimated $58B in 3Y notes is expected to be auctioned on Tuesday, May 11, $41B 10Y notes on Wednesday May 12 and $27B in 30Y Bonds on Thursday, May 13.
  • Traders watching futures, particularly 30Y Bonds that have experienced gap bids last two days at around 0800ET w/follow-through buying for another couple hours after. Speculation over accts unwinding net shorts -- desks say prop, fast$ and dealers that have been scaling back net short positions in Tsy and MBS inventories since February have accelerated. Not apparent ahead ADP.

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