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Waiting for CPI

BONDS
  • Moves have been a little limited in the European morning session with markets awaiting the key US CPI report which is due at 8:30ET / 13:30BST, although we have seen a little weakness in the German and gilt curves relative to yesterday's close.
  • For the CPI report the market remains sceptical of additional hikes from here, pricing just 9bp of cumulative tightening by the November meeting. NY Fed’s Williams and Philly Fed’s Harker have this week talked on 2024 rate cuts and there is more than 140bps of cuts priced for 2024. We suspect reaction is skewed larger in the event of a miss. For our full CPI preview click here.
  • Today will also see speeches from Daly, Bostic and Harker (again).
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3 today at 111-09+ with 10y UST yields up 0.8bp at 4.016% and 2y yields down -0.7bp at 4.803%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.41 today at 132.46 with 10y Bund yields up 3.2bp at 2.527% and Schatz yields up 2.1bp at 2.962%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.18 today at 949.99 with 10y yields up 2.3bp at 4.387% and 2y yields up 2.1bp at 4.932%.
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