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Waller Doesn't See Red Sea Disruption Having Big Impact

FED
  • Waller in Q&A On the need to act methodically: Once the supply side correction has finished then those tailwinds are gone, potentially seeing a rebound in goods inflation. It’s those sort of things we want to be careful of before cutting. He doesn’t know what waiting too long to cut means, 1-6 weeks later isn’t going to have a huge impact on the economy.
  • To what extent could Red Sea disruption be a risk to inflation?
  • Q: There are alternative routes, it’s a substitution problem. There could be a one-time level adjustment but I don’t see it being a big impact for US and global inflation unless it spirals from here.

  • Q: Is fiscal policy continuing to put upward pressure on prices?
  • A: The spending in the last year has been more on longer-term investment and manufacturing, renewable energy etc. There’s going to be some impact but it’s probably not that big, particularly for consumer retail goods. These are level effects, not permanent changes in the inflation trend.
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