Waller/Ihrig Note Critiques Fed's Post-COVID Guidance, But Gives Away Little on Policy Ahead

Note is largely a run through and a critique of the Fed's actions to the post-COVID wave of higher inflation, so is generally pretty retrospective - highlights are:

• "A possible takeaway is that a less restrictive tapering criteria would have allowed more flexibility to taper "sooner and gradually," as opposed to the relatively "later and faster" approach that occurred."
• On rate liftoff criteria being "quite restrictive": one might argue that it required the economy to be in a situation where our dual mandate had been achieved. A lesson is that perhaps more flexibility should be considered in future liftoff criteria.
• "Another lesson is that giving forward guidance about liftoff should also include forward guidance about the possible path of the policy rate after liftoff."
• But finishes on a more positive note: "policymakers' actions have coincided with stable financial markets, a strong labor market, and inflation moving down from its peak."