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Waller On Productivity Growth

FED
  • Q: Do the pace of wage increases have to slow to reach your goal?
  • A: If inflation is 2%, then productivity growth which has averaged 1.5% over fifteen years gives you 3.5% nominal wage growth. At 4% you’re a little high but not that high. Right now we’re seeing a little boom in productivity, which I hope continues, but it's averaged 1.5% since the pandemic just like over the prior decade.
  • Q: Are you optimistic whether it’s more efficiency or AI that can drive productivity ahead?
    A: Productivity growth is the heart and soul of raising living standards. Looking right now, AI can’t be helping. Maybe there are methods that sprung up in the pandemic that are still being used to good effect. There could be sustained productivity growth for a while but don’t see much else to help drive it. AI impact is down the road.
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