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Waller Weighs

US TSYS
FOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Fed Governor Waller remained on the hawkish side of the Fed-Dove spectrum in early Asia trade, pressuring Tsys.

  • ~73bp of Fed cuts now priced through year end, ~16.5bp priced through June
  • Hawkish BoE comments have also weighed.
  • Yields are 1.5-6.5bp higher across the curve, with bear flattening seen.
  • Waller’s hawkish remarks have pushed yields away from this week’s lows.
  • 2s10s and 5s30s stick within recent ranges.
  • TYM4 last -0-08+ at 110-19+ (110-18 to 28+ range), on elevated volume of ~331K. Yesterday’s low is being tested.
  • Beyond there, initial support is seen at the Mar 21 low 110-08+.
  • A reminder that yesterday’s rally topped out at 110-31+, briefly piercing resistance at the 50-day EMA. Yesterday’s high is now the initial resistance point.
  • A reminder that cash Tsys are set to close early today (14:00 NY), ahead of the Easter weekend.
  • Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, final Q4 GDP, the MNI Chicago PMI and final UoM sentiment data are due later today.
  • Month-end extensions (seen as relatively limited for Tsys) and quarterly portfolio rebalancing (seen as -ve for equities & +ve for bonds) flow will also be eyed.
  • PCE data and comments from Fed Chair Powell are due on Friday, when U.S. rates markets are closed.
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Fed Governor Waller remained on the hawkish side of the Fed-Dove spectrum in early Asia trade, pressuring Tsys.

  • ~73bp of Fed cuts now priced through year end, ~16.5bp priced through June
  • Hawkish BoE comments have also weighed.
  • Yields are 1.5-6.5bp higher across the curve, with bear flattening seen.
  • Waller’s hawkish remarks have pushed yields away from this week’s lows.
  • 2s10s and 5s30s stick within recent ranges.
  • TYM4 last -0-08+ at 110-19+ (110-18 to 28+ range), on elevated volume of ~331K. Yesterday’s low is being tested.
  • Beyond there, initial support is seen at the Mar 21 low 110-08+.
  • A reminder that yesterday’s rally topped out at 110-31+, briefly piercing resistance at the 50-day EMA. Yesterday’s high is now the initial resistance point.
  • A reminder that cash Tsys are set to close early today (14:00 NY), ahead of the Easter weekend.
  • Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, final Q4 GDP, the MNI Chicago PMI and final UoM sentiment data are due later today.
  • Month-end extensions (seen as relatively limited for Tsys) and quarterly portfolio rebalancing (seen as -ve for equities & +ve for bonds) flow will also be eyed.
  • PCE data and comments from Fed Chair Powell are due on Friday, when U.S. rates markets are closed.