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Free AccessWaller Weighs
Fed Governor Waller remained on the hawkish side of the Fed-Dove spectrum in early Asia trade, pressuring Tsys.
- ~73bp of Fed cuts now priced through year end, ~16.5bp priced through June
- Hawkish BoE comments have also weighed.
- Yields are 1.5-6.5bp higher across the curve, with bear flattening seen.
- Waller’s hawkish remarks have pushed yields away from this week’s lows.
- 2s10s and 5s30s stick within recent ranges.
- TYM4 last -0-08+ at 110-19+ (110-18 to 28+ range), on elevated volume of ~331K. Yesterday’s low is being tested.
- Beyond there, initial support is seen at the Mar 21 low 110-08+.
- A reminder that yesterday’s rally topped out at 110-31+, briefly piercing resistance at the 50-day EMA. Yesterday’s high is now the initial resistance point.
- A reminder that cash Tsys are set to close early today (14:00 NY), ahead of the Easter weekend.
- Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, final Q4 GDP, the MNI Chicago PMI and final UoM sentiment data are due later today.
- Month-end extensions (seen as relatively limited for Tsys) and quarterly portfolio rebalancing (seen as -ve for equities & +ve for bonds) flow will also be eyed.
- PCE data and comments from Fed Chair Powell are due on Friday, when U.S. rates markets are closed.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.