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US: Waltz Resignation Shrinks Republican House Majority Until April

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The United States House of Representatives has gaveled in for a pro-forma session to formally accept the resignation of Representative Michael Waltz (R-FL), tapped to serve as President-elect Donald Trump's National Security Advisor.

  • Waltz's resignation is expected to be followed by the registration of Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who will serve as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations.
  • The two resignations, along with the exit of former GOP Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL), will take the House balance of power to 217 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and 3 vacancies (Waltz, Gaetz, Stefanik).
  • Special elections will be held to fill the two Florida seats on April 1st. A special election to fill Stefanik's seat will be called by New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who may seek to delay the special election for as long as possible - feasibly until mid-May.  
  • Until the vacant seats are filled, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cannot drop a single Republican vote in any vote on the House floor, assuming all Democrats are present and voting.
  • The fine margin is unlikely to affect Johnson's reconciliation agenda, which targets floor votes in May. However, the razor-thin margin may hand Democrats some additional leverage talks to avert a government shut and raise the debt limit in mid-March. 
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The United States House of Representatives has gaveled in for a pro-forma session to formally accept the resignation of Representative Michael Waltz (R-FL), tapped to serve as President-elect Donald Trump's National Security Advisor.

  • Waltz's resignation is expected to be followed by the registration of Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who will serve as Trump's ambassador to the United Nations.
  • The two resignations, along with the exit of former GOP Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL), will take the House balance of power to 217 Republicans, 215 Democrats, and 3 vacancies (Waltz, Gaetz, Stefanik).
  • Special elections will be held to fill the two Florida seats on April 1st. A special election to fill Stefanik's seat will be called by New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who may seek to delay the special election for as long as possible - feasibly until mid-May.  
  • Until the vacant seats are filled, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cannot drop a single Republican vote in any vote on the House floor, assuming all Democrats are present and voting.
  • The fine margin is unlikely to affect Johnson's reconciliation agenda, which targets floor votes in May. However, the razor-thin margin may hand Democrats some additional leverage talks to avert a government shut and raise the debt limit in mid-March.