Washington Insiders Doubtful Of Trump Victory In November

A new survey from Punchbowl News has found that Washington insiders are skeptical that former President Donald Trump will win a presidential election rematch with President Biden in November.

• Punchbowl reports: "Our surveys of K Street in January and Capitol Hill in February found little confidence in Trump as the party’s presidential candidate. Just 11% of K Street Republicans and 28% of top congressional GOP staffers said Trump was the party’s best choice."
• Punchbowl adds, "Downtowners and top Hill staffers weren’t much more optimistic when asked about Trump’s chances of defeating President Joe Biden. Just one-third of congressional respondents believe Trump will win. On K Street, 64% of respondents believe Biden will win reelection this year."
• The survey conflicts with recent polling and betting market data which suggests Trump is the slight favourite. A recent survey from the New York Times found Trump leading Biden across all seven swing states and highlighted growing weaknesses in the progressive alliance which delivered Biden the White House in 2020, particularly amongst women and minority voters.
• ElectionBettingOdds, an aggregator of betting and prediction market data, gives Trump a 52% implied probability of winning, compared to 31% for Biden.
• Notably, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won her first primary contest of the Republican presidential nominating process on Sunday in Washington D.C. Suggesting that Republicans in the capital may be more sceptical of Trump than Republicans elsewhere in the country.