Washington Primaries Point At Slight Democrat Advantage In November

Split Ticket has published a detailed analysis of this month's Washington primary elections, concluding that the results suggest "perhaps the best down-ballot environment Democrats have enjoyed since the blue wave of 2018," but "they still point to a closer election."

• The Washington primaries, which are a 'jungle' format that pits Republicans and Democrats together, is often considered a bellwether for the general election because of its structure and proximity to election day.
• Split Ticket cautions that some overly positive readings of the primary results by Democrat pundits should be moderated, as the state has been, "trending left at a rapid pace, especially in the post-Dobbs era," which may distort traditional readings of the primary data.
• Split Ticket concludes: "...if historical trends hold, Washington’s true bellwether arguably predicts a national House vote favoring Democrats by roughly three points, slightly bluer than 2020. This is a signal that the House may be likely to flip back to Democrats. But there is still a long way to go, and every indicator we do get until the election will always be an imperfect one."
• According to data from ElectionBettingOdds, betting markets show Democrats with an implied probability of 61.5% of winning the House of Representatives.

Figure 1: “Democrats' share of the two-way vote (excluding third parties) in Washington state primaries vs. their share of the national popular vote for the U.S. House.”

Source: Washington Post