Watch The Guidance

The main thing to watch in the FOMC decision in 10 minutes (apart from the modest probability of a pause) is the forward guidance, which currently reads:

• "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account..."
• The broad expectation is that this changes in a dovish direction, with a lot of ways that can be done.
• For example: changing "firming" to "adjustments", which potentially implies moves in either direction; moderating the latter part to say something like "in determining whether further increases in the target range are necessary..."; to signal that it's "appropriate to maintain" (ie pause); to be " patient" in making further rates; to say "any" rather than "some additional" policy firming; and so on. Table below.
• The risk that they don't change the guidance is underestimated, though - and would be hawkish, suggesting that another hike is seen coming after May.