May 14, 2024 14:54 GMT
MNI UK Labour Market Insight
UK DATA
- The key private sector regular wages number of 5.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of March is the key to the labour market report. That printed in line with previews that we have read and 0.1ppt below the BOE's forecast.
- Looking at the wider AWE numbers – there were upside surprises driven by the public sector. But the Bank of England tend to look through these as they are less driven by competitive and economic factors (and have less predictive power).
- This marginally increases the likelihood of a June cut. One more hurdle has been removed. But the key remains next week's services CPI data (particularly as the BOE has deemphasised labour market data somewhat).
- We also summarise a dozen sell-side reviews of the labour market release in more detail.
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