- We would agree with consensus that the...>

RIKSBANK: - We would agree with consensus that the biggest risk is an early

expansion to QE, and our conviction that it will remain unchanged is not high.

Indeed, an early expansion to QE is exactly what the ECB did at its June

meeting. There was still scope to buy more bonds under PEPP, but the programme

size was increased to show the ECB's commitment to the policy for a longer

period of time and to provide the market with more certainty. The ECB will hope

that this extra certainty will help the transmission mechanism by lowering the

risk premia, and we would definitely not rule out the Riksbank making a similar

decision.

- Economic data has been better than expected and we would expect only one

forecast rather than two scenarios. However, we don't think the market will pay

too much attention to the growth forecasts other than to put the repo rate path

and verbal guidance into context.

- For more see MNI ANALYSIS - Riksbank Preview sent to MNI Markets and Policy

clients via email yesterday. (2/2)