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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan chairs cabinet meeting at 3pm local time. Central bank publishes real sector confidence index and capacity utilization data for May at 10am. (BBG).
- Political uncertainty combined with the sustained CBRT ‘dovish’ stance should continue to weigh on the TRY and Turkish domestic equities.
- Analysts expect inflation to average up to 70% this year (2022 CPI forecast currently at 60.40%).
- *TURKEY MAY INFLATION ESTIMATE NEXT 12 MONTHS 33.28% (BBG).
- Hence, the weakness in fundamentals combined with negative real interest rates should continue to drive TRY lower against the US Dollar.
- With a current inflation rate of 70%, Turkey offers the lowest 10Y real yield in the world (nearly -50%, see chart).
- USDTRY has been trending higher in May after finding support slightly above the 50DMA in the beginning of the month. The pair has been testing its psychological resistance at 16 in the past week; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 16.4490, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 10.2510 - 18.3630 range.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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